What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win United States vs Peru?
Bawler's model rates this match: United States are favoured (78% win probability vs 8% for Peru, 14% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for United States vs Peru?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is United States 2-0 Peru (9.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.76.
How does Bawler predict United States vs Peru?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives United States 78%, the draw 14% and Peru 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in United States vs Peru?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.89 and away expected goals 0.87.
Over or under 2.5 goals in United States vs Peru?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).