What we expect
In plain English
Union St.-Gilloise should win this one. They have won six of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than OH Leuven, and OH Leuven have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Union St.-Gilloise to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Bawler's model rates this match: Union St.-Gilloise are favoured (79% win probability vs 7% for OH Leuven, 14% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Union St.-Gilloise 2-0 OH Leuven (12.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.37.
How does Bawler predict Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Union St.-Gilloise 79%, the draw 14% and OH Leuven 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
BTTS: No (53% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.67 and away expected goals 0.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.37. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).