FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
OH Leuven 2–0 RAAL La LouvièreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had OH Leuven at 44%, draw at 27%, RAAL La Louvière at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward OH Leuven.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leuven win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Louvière win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.23
Total 2.76
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides combine for 2.68 expected goals, with OH Leuven's 1.47 xG edge suggesting the home side will generate enough chances to push a narrow, open fixture past single-goal territory."