Match prediction·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League·Saturday 08 Aug, 16:15 UTC

Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge KSV

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
36.0% home30.6% draw33.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Standard LiegestepCercle Brugge KSV
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Standard Liege average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Cercle Brugge average 5.6 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Cercle Brugge KSV to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Standard Liege and Cercle Brugge — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Standard Liege 36% · draw 31% · Cercle Brugge 33%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Standard Liege 22 Cercle Brugge KSV
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.