FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Club Brugge 1–0 Cercle Brugge KSVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Club Brugge at 69%, draw at 17%, Cercle Brugge KSV at 14%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brugge win
69%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
KSV win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.76 – 1.22
Total 3.98
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-3.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won