FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League · Friday, 21 August 2026
Standard Liege 2–0 RAAL La LouvièreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 21 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Standard Liege at 48%, draw at 27%, RAAL La Louvière at 25%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Standard Liege.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liege win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Louvière win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.03
Total 2.58
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost