FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
KAA Gent 1–0 AGFMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was KAA Gent or draw at 75%. Bawler had KAA Gent at 49%, the draw at 25% and AGF at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
KAA Gent win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
AGF win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
KAA Gent or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.