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North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK
14North Macedonia win25Draw61Slovenia win
The call
61%
Slovenia to win
Calls like this land 69% of the time
213 of 307 settledFull record →
14d 18hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
0–1
16% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
0.7v1.7
2.3 in total
Both teams score
39%
No
3+ goals
41%
Leans unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

North MacedoniaNorth MacedoniaSloveniaSlovenia
0.7Goals1.7
usually 0.0usually 1.2
7.8Shots12.0
usually 5.2usually 12.2
2.1On target3.8
usually 0.8usually 3.8
3.8Corners5.1
usually 1.5usually 5.5
North MacedoniaNorth MacedoniaSloveniaSlovenia
0.3Goals0.7
3.5Shots5.5
usually 2.2usually 6.0
0.9On target1.7
usually 0.5usually 0.8
1.8Corners2.4
usually 0.7usually 3.2
North MacedoniaNorth MacedoniaSloveniaSlovenia
0.4Goals0.9
4.2Shots6.5
1.2On target2.1
2.0Corners2.7

More chances

Slovenia to score81%
3 goals or fewer80%
2 or more goals67%
Goal before half-time64%

North Macedonia · last 6

Lat Switzerland0–33 shots
Lv Scotland0–29 shots
Lat Slovenia0–29 shots
Lv Switzerland0–32 shots
Lat Turkiye0–45 shots
Dv Bosnia and Herzegovina0–03 shots

Slovenia · last 6

Wat Scotland2–110 shots
Lat Switzerland1–210 shots
Wv North Macedonia2–016 shots
Dv Scotland0–04 shots
Lat Croatia1–213 shots
Dv Cyprus1–120 shots

Head to head

Sept 2026Slovenia 2–0 North Macedonia
Jun 2021North Macedonia 1–1 Slovenia
Oct 2019North Macedonia 2–1 Slovenia
Mar 2019Slovenia 1–1 North Macedonia
Mar 2016Slovenia 1–0 North Macedonia

First half — what we expect

North Macedonia
25%
to score before half-time
Slovenia
52%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

North MacedoniaNorth MacedoniaSloveniaSlovenia
44%4+ shots73%
19%6+ shots45%
56%1+ shots on target78%
<10%3+ shots on target25%
77%1+ corners87%
27%3+ corners41%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Slovenia to win is 61% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

North Macedonia lead 1–0 at half-time15%
Slovenia lead 1–0 at half-time86%
Goalless at half-time45%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →North Macedonia form →Slovenia form →

Common questions

Who will win North Macedonia vs Slovenia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Slovenia are favoured (61% win probability vs 14% for North Macedonia, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for North Macedonia vs Slovenia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is North Macedonia 0-1 Slovenia (16.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.3.

How does Bawler predict North Macedonia vs Slovenia?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives North Macedonia 14%, the draw 25% and Slovenia 61%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in North Macedonia vs Slovenia?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 39% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on North Macedonia expecting 0.65 goals and Slovenia 1.66.

Over or under 2.5 goals in North Macedonia vs Slovenia?

Bawler's model expects 2.3 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 41%.