Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Rafik El Arguioui and Milan Zonneveld both getting shots away.
SC Cambuur v Sparta Rotterdam prediction
SC Cambuur are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 39%. Sparta Rotterdam are 37%, and the draw 24%. Our predicted score is SC Cambuur 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, the likeliest SC Cambuur win score (8%). SC Cambuur are expected to score 1.7 goals and Sparta Rotterdam 1.7, 3.4 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (66%) and three or more goals is 66%.
We expect SC Cambuur to have 15.4 shots (5.8 on target) and Sparta Rotterdam 14.5 (5.2 on target), and corners at 5.3 to 5.0. Of their last five meetings on our records, SC Cambuur have won two, Sparta Rotterdam one, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Sparta Rotterdam 4–1 Cambuur, in May 2023.
SC Cambuur come in with three wins, two draws and one defeat in their last six. Sparta Rotterdam have two wins, two draws and two defeats over the same run. Of the players, Milan Zonneveld (Sparta Rotterdam) tops both our lists, with 2.9 shots and 1.2 on target expected if they start. Devid Eugene Bouah of SC Cambuur is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 24.5 Total Shots, Rafik El Arguioui 1+ Shot and Milan Zonneveld 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 56% on our numbers, so the fair price is 4/5, or 1.80.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
SC Cambuur · last 6
Sparta Rotterdam · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
SC Cambuur or draw is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win SC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler's model rates this match: SC Cambuur are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Sparta Rotterdam, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for SC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler's predicted score is SC Cambuur 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam: the most likely score if SC Cambuur win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.2%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict SC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SC Cambuur 39%, the draw 24% and Sparta Rotterdam 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 66% chance. That is based on SC Cambuur expecting 1.72 goals and Sparta Rotterdam 1.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the SC Cambuur v Sparta Rotterdam line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for SC Cambuur v Sparta Rotterdam?
Both Teams to Score (66%), Over 24.5 Total Shots (81%), Rafik El Arguioui 1+ Shot (90%), Milan Zonneveld 1+ Shot (91%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.