Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 19:45 UK
Romania 29Draw 25Bosnia-Herzegovina 46
The call
71%
Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw
3.0
Goals expected
13d 20hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Bosnia-Herzegovina to score81%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Romania to score73%
Under 3.5 goals65%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ROM 2 · D 0 · BOS 3

Head to head

Nov 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Romania
Mar 2025Romania 0–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sept 2022Romania 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jun 2022Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–0 Romania
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Common questions

Who will win Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bosnia-Herzegovina are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Romania, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Romania 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.98.

How does Bawler predict Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Romania 29%, the draw 25% and Bosnia-Herzegovina 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.29 and away expected goals 1.69.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.98. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Romania
Before this
25 SeptASweden19:45
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Before this
25 SeptAPoland19:45
All fixtures & results →Romania form →Bosnia-Herzegovina form →