What we expect
In plain English
Portugal should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Norway, and they have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Portugal or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Portugal vs Norway?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portugal are favoured (55% win probability vs 22% for Norway, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Norway?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Portugal 1-1 Norway (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.21.
How does Bawler predict Portugal vs Norway?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Portugal 55%, the draw 23% and Norway 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Norway?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.99 and away expected goals 1.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Portugal vs Norway?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.21. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).