FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Portugal 2–1 NorwayMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Portugal
2–1
Portugal win
Norway

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Portugal or draw at 76%. Bawler had Portugal at 53%, the draw at 23% and Norway at 24%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Portugal win
53%
Result
Draw
23%
Norway win
24%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Portugal to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 83%, driven by Portugal's 0.74 xG advantage and Ronaldo and Leão combining for 38% of their team's shot quality at home."

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