What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Wales · last 6
Portugal · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Portugal to win is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portugal are favoured (78% win probability vs 6% for Wales, 16% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Wales vs Portugal?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Wales 0-2 Portugal (16.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Wales vs Portugal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Wales 6%, the draw 16% and Portugal 78%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Wales vs Portugal?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 35% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Wales expecting 0.50 goals and Portugal 2.31.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Wales vs Portugal?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.