FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Wales 2–1 NorwayMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Wales
2–1
Wales win
Norway

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Norway to win at 79%. Bawler had Wales at 7%, the draw at 14% and Norway at 79%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Wales win
7%
Result
Draw
14%
Norway win
79%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.7 – 2.7
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Norway to win
Pre-match: 79%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Norway's away win is the model's 76% call, built on a dominant 1.84 expected-goals advantage anchored by creator Martin Ødegaard and striker Erling Haaland's combined 50% of team xG."

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