Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Kristoffer Velde and Petar Musa both getting shots away.
Portland Timbers v FC Dallas prediction
Portland Timbers are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 40%. FC Dallas are 35%, and the draw 25%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Portland Timbers 2–1 FC Dallas, the most likely Portland Timbers win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.6 for Portland Timbers and 1.5 for FC Dallas, 3.2 in all. Both teams scoring is 63% and three or more goals is 61%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Portland Timbers have won none, FC Dallas two, and three were drawn. When they last met, it finished FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers, in Sept 2026. On shots, our forecast is 15.6 for Portland Timbers and 12.7 for FC Dallas, with 5.7 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 5.9 to 4.4.
Of the players, Kristoffer Velde of Portland Timbers tops our shots forecast at 3.3, if they start. Petar Musa (FC Dallas) leads for shots on target, at 1.5. For cards, Ian Smith (Portland Timbers) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Portland Timbers have four wins, one draw and one defeat, while FC Dallas have three wins, two draws and one defeat. Both won their most recent match. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Kristoffer Velde 1+ Shot and Petar Musa 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 54%, a fair price of 5/6 (1.85).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Portland Timbers · last 6
FC Dallas · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Portland Timbers or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portland Timbers are favoured (40% win probability vs 35% for FC Dallas, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?
Bawler's predicted score is Portland Timbers 2-1 FC Dallas: the most likely score if Portland Timbers win, which is the likeliest result (40%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.5%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Portland Timbers 40%, the draw 25% and FC Dallas 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Portland Timbers expecting 1.64 goals and FC Dallas 1.52.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Portland Timbers v FC Dallas line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Portland Timbers v FC Dallas?
Both Teams to Score (63%), Over 23.5 Total Shots (79%), Kristoffer Velde 1+ Shot (93%), Petar Musa 1+ Shot (93%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.85). 18+, please gamble responsibly.