Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFC Dallas on top, with Petar Musa our likeliest to test the keeper.
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers prediction
Our model gives FC Dallas 50%, the draw 24% and Portland Timbers 26%, so FC Dallas start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers, the most likely FC Dallas win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.9 for FC Dallas and 1.3 for Portland Timbers, 3.2 in all. Both teams scoring is 62% and three or more goals is 62%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, FC Dallas have won two, Portland Timbers none, and three were drawn. When they last met, it finished FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers, in Sept 2026. On shots, our forecast is 14.4 for FC Dallas and 12.9 for Portland Timbers, with 5.4 and 4.3 on target, and corners at 4.7 to 5.5.
Petar Musa is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.7 shots and 1.6 on target for FC Dallas, if they start. For cards, Ian Smith (Portland Timbers) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026, more often than anyone else here. On form, FC Dallas have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Portland Timbers have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Bawler's pick for this game is FC Dallas or Draw, FC Dallas Over 10.5 Shots and Petar Musa 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.02).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
FC Dallas · last 6
Portland Timbers · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Dallas or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Dallas are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for Portland Timbers, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler's predicted score is FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers: the most likely score if FC Dallas win, which is the likeliest result (50%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Dallas 50%, the draw 24% and Portland Timbers 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on FC Dallas expecting 1.86 goals and Portland Timbers 1.32.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the FC Dallas v Portland Timbers line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for FC Dallas v Portland Timbers?
FC Dallas or Draw (74%), FC Dallas Over 10.5 Shots (78%), Petar Musa 1+ Shot on Target (75%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.02). 18+, please gamble responsibly.