What we expect
In plain English
Poland are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Romania, and Romania have not beaten them in their last three meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Poland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Poland vs Romania?
Bawler's model rates this match: Poland are favoured (65% win probability vs 15% for Romania, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Poland vs Romania?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Poland 2-0 Romania (10.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.16.
How does Bawler predict Poland vs Romania?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Poland 65%, the draw 20% and Romania 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Poland vs Romania?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.20 and away expected goals 0.96.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Poland vs Romania?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.16. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).