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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania prediction — UEFA Nations League · Tue 17 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Tue 17 Nov · 19:45 UK
VersusRomaniaRomania
75Bosnia-Herzegovina win17Draw8Romania win
The call
75%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win
Likeliest score
2–0
13% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
2.4v0.7
3.0 in total
Both teams score
44%
Leans no
3+ goals
59%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaRomaniaRomania
2.4Goals0.7
usually 1.5usually 1.0
16.0Shots8.5
usually 10.2usually 12.3
5.3On target2.5
usually 3.2usually 3.3
5.2Corners2.3
usually 3.3usually 3.8
Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaRomaniaRomania
1.1Goals0.3
7.3Shots3.9
usually 5.0usually 5.8
2.4On target1.1
usually 1.5usually 1.5
2.4Corners1.1
usually 2.0usually 1.7
Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaRomaniaRomania
1.3Goals0.4
8.7Shots4.6
2.9On target1.4
2.7Corners1.2

More chances

Bosnia-Herzegovina to score91%
2 or more goals81%
Goal before half-time74%
3 goals or fewer64%

Bosnia-Herzegovina · last 6

Wv Poland1–09 shots
Dv Sweden1–14 shots
Wat Romania4–215 shots
Dat Poland0–09 shots
Lv USA0–210 shots
Wv Qatar3–114 shots

Romania · last 6

Lv Sweden0–113 shots
Lat Poland0–610 shots
Lv Bosnia and Herzegovina2–413 shots
Lat Sweden1–210 shots
Wv Wales2–122 shots
Dat Georgia1–106/02

Head to head

Sept 2026Romania 2–4 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Nov 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina 3–1 Romania
Mar 2025Romania 0–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sept 2022Romania 4–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jun 2022Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–0 Romania

First half — what we expect

Bosnia-Herzegovina
65%
to score before half-time
Romania
26%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaRomaniaRomania
67%6+ shots23%
43%8+ shots<10%
88%1+ shots on target63%
41%3+ shots on target13%
87%1+ corners60%
42%3+ corners12%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Bosnia-Herzegovina to win is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Bosnia-Herzegovina lead 1–0 at half-time89%
Romania lead 1–0 at half-time26%
Goalless at half-time58%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Bosnia-Herzegovina form →Romania form →

Common questions

Who will win Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bosnia-Herzegovina are favoured (75% win probability vs 8% for Romania, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 Romania (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.

How does Bawler predict Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bosnia-Herzegovina 75%, the draw 17% and Romania 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Bosnia-Herzegovina expecting 2.38 goals and Romania 0.67.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania?

Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.