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Poland vs Sweden prediction — UEFA Nations League · Tue 17 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Tue 17 Nov · 19:45 UK
VersusSwedenSweden
44Poland win25Draw31Sweden win
The call
69%
Poland or draw
Likeliest score
1–1
11% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.7v1.4
3.1 in total
Both teams score
61%
Yes
3+ goals
59%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

PolandPolandSwedenSweden
1.7Goals1.4
usually 1.5usually 1.3
16.1Shots8.8
usually 17.3usually 10.3
5.8On target3.5
usually 5.8usually 4.0
6.6Corners2.7
usually 6.2usually 3.3
PolandPolandSwedenSweden
0.7Goals0.6
7.4Shots4.0
usually 8.0usually 5.2
2.6On target1.6
usually 3.3usually 2.2
3.1Corners1.3
usually 3.2usually 1.3
PolandPolandSwedenSweden
0.9Goals0.8
8.8Shots4.8
3.2On target1.9
3.5Corners1.4

More chances

Poland to score82%
2 or more goals81%
Sweden to score75%
Goal before half-time74%
3 goals or fewer63%

Poland · last 6

Lv Bosnia and Herzegovina0–118 shots
Wv Romania6–024 shots
Lat Sweden1–318 shots
Dv Bosnia and Herzegovina0–014 shots
Dv Nigeria2–206/03
Lv Ukraine0–205/31

Sweden · last 6

Wat Romania1–012 shots
Dv Bosnia and Herzegovina1–18 shots
Wv Poland3–112 shots
Wv Romania2–111 shots
Lv France0–38 shots
Dv Japan1–111 shots

Head to head

Sept 2026Sweden 3–1 Poland
Mar 2026Sweden 3–2 Poland
Mar 2022Poland 2–0 Sweden
Jun 2021Sweden 3–2 Poland
Jun 1974Sweden 0–1 Poland

First half — what we expect

Poland
53%
to score before half-time
Sweden
46%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

PolandPolandSwedenSweden
68%6+ shots24%
44%8+ shots<10%
69%2+ shots on target44%
28%4+ shots on target<10%
76%2+ corners34%
37%4+ corners<10%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Poland or draw is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Poland lead 1–0 at half-time93%
Sweden lead 1–0 at half-time37%
Goalless at half-time73%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Poland form →Sweden form →

Common questions

Who will win Poland vs Sweden?

Bawler's model rates this match: Poland are favoured (44% win probability vs 31% for Sweden, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Poland vs Sweden?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Poland 1-1 Sweden (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.

How does Bawler predict Poland vs Sweden?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Poland 44%, the draw 25% and Sweden 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Poland vs Sweden?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on Poland expecting 1.69 goals and Sweden 1.37.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Poland vs Sweden?

Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.