What we expect
In plain English
Solomon Islands are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Papua New Guinea, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Solomon Islands or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler's model rates this match: Solomon Islands are favoured (52% win probability vs 27% for Papua New Guinea, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Papua New Guinea 1-2 Solomon Islands (8.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.81.
How does Bawler predict Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Papua New Guinea 27%, the draw 21% and Solomon Islands 52%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
BTTS: Yes (71% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.58 and away expected goals 2.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.81. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).