What we expect
In plain English
Panama should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than New Zealand. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Panama or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Panama vs New Zealand?
Bawler's model rates this match: Panama are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for New Zealand, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Panama vs New Zealand?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Panama 1-1 New Zealand (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.07.
How does Bawler predict Panama vs New Zealand?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Panama 57%, the draw 23% and New Zealand 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Panama vs New Zealand?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.97 and away expected goals 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Panama vs New Zealand?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.07. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).