Match prediction·EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs RB Salzburg

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
PafosstepRB Salzburg
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Pafos average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (4 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Pafos or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Pafos Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Pafos vs RB Salzburg — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Pafos have won 0, RB Salzburg have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026RB Salzburg 10 PafosEUROPE: Europa League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Pafos 40% · draw 28% · RB Salzburg 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.