Pre-match, Bawler had Mjällby AIF at 40%, draw at 26%, RB Salzburg at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Mjällby AIF to win.
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.