FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Mjällby AIF 01 RB SalzburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Mjällby AIF
01
RB Salzburg win
RB Salzburg
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Mjällby AIF at 40%, draw at 26%, RB Salzburg at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Mjällby AIF to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
AIF win
40%
Draw
26%
Salzburg win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.501.38
Total 2.88
Actual
01
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost

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