FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Mjällby AIF 0–1 RB SalzburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Mjällby AIF
0–1
RB Salzburg win
RB Salzburg

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Mjällby AIF or draw at 66%. Bawler had Mjällby AIF at 40%, the draw at 26% and RB Salzburg at 34%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mjällby AIF win
40%
Draw
26%
RB Salzburg win
34%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.6
From the match itself

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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