FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026
Pafos 3–3 RB SalzburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 13 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Pafos at 40%, draw at 28%, RB Salzburg at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Pafos to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Pafos win
40%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Salzburg win
32%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Pafos or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won