FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Dinamo City 1–1 PafosMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Pafos or draw at 77%. Bawler had Dinamo City at 23%, the draw at 23% and Pafos at 54%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Dinamo City win
23%
Draw
23%
Result
Pafos win
54%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Pafos to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.