Norway vs Denmark prediction — UEFA Nations League · Thu 24 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Thu 24 Sept · 19:45 UK
Norway 66Draw 18Denmark 15
The call
66%
Norway to win
3.6
Goals expected
14d 09hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Norway to score92%
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Denmark to score68%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W L W W L
Expected goals gap (xG)+1.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5NOR 0 · D 2 · DEN 3

Head to head

Jun 2024Denmark 3–1 Norway
Nov 2013Denmark 2–1 Norway
Jan 2012Denmark 1–1 Norway
Sept 2011Denmark 2–0 Norway
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Common questions

Who will win Norway vs Denmark?

Bawler's model rates this match: Norway are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for Denmark, 18% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs Denmark?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Norway 2-1 Denmark (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.65.

How does Bawler predict Norway vs Denmark?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Norway 66%, the draw 18% and Denmark 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Norway vs Denmark?

BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.50 and away expected goals 1.14.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Norway vs Denmark?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.65. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).