FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Wales 0–1 DenmarkMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Wales
0–1
Denmark win
Denmark

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Denmark to win at 60%. Bawler had Wales at 18%, the draw at 22% and Denmark at 60%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Wales win
18%
Draw
22%
Denmark win
60%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 83%, driven by Denmark's 2.11 xG advantage and 60% win probability suggesting attacking dominance will breach Wales' 1.10 xG defence."

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