Bawler's model rates this match: Montenegro are favoured (51% win probability vs 26% for Cyprus, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Montenegro 1-1 Cyprus (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.29.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Montenegro 51%, the draw 23% and Cyprus 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.95 and away expected goals 1.34.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.29. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).