Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction — UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK
Montenegro 51Draw 23Cyprus 26
The call
74%
Montenegro or draw
3.3
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Montenegro to score86%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Cyprus to score74%
Over 2.5 goals64%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5MON 2 · D 1 · CYP 0

Head to head

Nov 2020Montenegro 4–0 Cyprus
Sept 2020Cyprus 0–2 Montenegro
Mar 2018Cyprus 0–0 Montenegro
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Common questions

Who will win Montenegro vs Cyprus?

Bawler's model rates this match: Montenegro are favoured (51% win probability vs 26% for Cyprus, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Montenegro vs Cyprus?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Montenegro 1-1 Cyprus (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.29.

How does Bawler predict Montenegro vs Cyprus?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Montenegro 51%, the draw 23% and Cyprus 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Montenegro vs Cyprus?

BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.95 and away expected goals 1.34.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Montenegro vs Cyprus?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.29. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).