FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Latvia 1–2 MontenegroMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Latvia
1–2
Montenegro win
Montenegro

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Montenegro or draw at 74%. Bawler had Latvia at 26%, the draw at 26% and Montenegro at 48%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Latvia win
26%
Draw
26%
Montenegro win
48%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.9
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Latvia to win
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 83%, backed by Montenegro's 0.61 xG advantage and their 51% win probability suggesting attacking intent will pierce Latvia's defence."

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