FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

Cyprus 2–1 LatviaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Cyprus
2–1
Cyprus win
Latvia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Cyprus or draw at 80%. Bawler had Cyprus at 53%, the draw at 27% and Latvia at 20%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Cyprus win
53%
Result
Draw
27%
Latvia win
20%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 0.9
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Cyprus or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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