FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Cyprus 2–0 ArmeniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Cyprus
2–0
Cyprus win
Armenia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Cyprus or draw at 74%. Bawler had Cyprus at 49%, the draw at 25% and Armenia at 26%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Cyprus win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
Armenia win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries 78% confidence as Cyprus's 0.59 expected-goal advantage suggests the hosts will create enough chances to push this fixture beyond a single goal."

More from Bawler