FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

Montenegro 0–0 ArmeniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Montenegro to win at 61%. Bawler had Montenegro at 61%, the draw at 21% and Armenia at 18%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Montenegro win
61%
Draw
21%
Result
Armenia win
18%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.2 – 1.1
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced 3.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Montenegro to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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