What we expect
In plain English
Faroe Islands are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Moldova. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Faroe Islands to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
Bawler's model rates this match: Faroe Islands are favoured (74% win probability vs 9% for Moldova, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Moldova 0-2 Faroe Islands (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.14.
How does Bawler predict Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Moldova 9%, the draw 17% and Faroe Islands 74%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
BTTS: No (52% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.74 and away expected goals 2.40.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Moldova vs Faroe Islands?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.14. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).