FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Faroe Islands 1–1 SlovakiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Slovakia or draw at 71%. Bawler had Faroe Islands at 29%, the draw at 28% and Slovakia at 43%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Faroe Islands win
29%
Draw
28%
Result
Slovakia win
43%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 72% as Slovakia's superior xG (1.40) and home vulnerability combine to project a total of 2.53 expected goals."

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