FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Moldova 0–4 SlovakiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Moldova
0–4
Slovakia win
Slovakia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Slovakia to win at 77%. Bawler had Moldova at 7%, the draw at 15% and Slovakia at 77%. The match finished 0–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Moldova win
7%
Draw
15%
Slovakia win
77%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.7 – 2.6
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.6
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Slovakia to win
Pre-match: 77%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

More from Bawler