FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Kazakhstan 1–2 MoldovaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Kazakhstan
1–2
Moldova win
Moldova

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Kazakhstan to win at 71%. Bawler had Kazakhstan at 71%, the draw at 19% and Moldova at 10%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kazakhstan win
71%
Draw
19%
Moldova win
10%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Kazakhstan to win
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Kazakhstan's home advantage and 1.53 expected-goals edge make a home win the model's high-confidence call at 71% probability."

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