What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Mjällby AIF are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Inter D'Escaldes. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Mjällby AIF to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Mjällby AIF vs Inter D'Escaldes?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mjällby AIF are favoured (73% win probability vs 10% for Inter D'Escaldes, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Mjällby AIF vs Inter D'Escaldes?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Mjällby AIF 2-0 Inter D'Escaldes (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.33.
How does Bawler predict Mjällby AIF vs Inter D'Escaldes?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Mjällby AIF 73%, the draw 17% and Inter D'Escaldes 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Inter D'Escaldes?
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.50 and away expected goals 0.83.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mjällby AIF vs Inter D'Escaldes?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.33. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).