Manchester City vs 
AFC Bournemouth
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Manchester CitystepAFC BournemouthManchester City average 7.0 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Bournemouth average 5.2 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).
Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026
- Rodri — Back surgery on a problem picked up around the 2026 World Cup; missing the entire Asia pre-season tourExpected return: Maresca expects him back in training at the City Football Academy in the week before the Community Shield v…
- Jack Grealish — Stress fracture of the left foot — surgery in January/February 2026, which cut short his Everton loanExpected return: Not named in the Asia tour squad; still working back to full fitness. No date reported
- 10 Aug · Line-upCity end tour 3-1 v Atletico: Semenyo two assists, Marmoush brace, WC group absentIn City's final pre-season match (Seoul, 9 Aug) Maresca started Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias (c), Vitor Reis, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Reijnders; Savinho, Foden, Semenyo; Marmoush.
- 10 Aug · ManagerMaresca: Rodri back in Manchester on 14 August after back surgerySpeaking after Sunday's 3-1 friendly win over Atletico Madrid in Seoul, Enzo Maresca was asked about Rodri's situation and said: "Yes, at the moment he will be in Manchester.
- Veljko Milosavljevic — Injury - left out of the travelling party for the Austria pre-season training camp and unavailable for the St Pauli friendly. Nature of the injury not disclosed.Expected return: Unverified
- 1 Aug · InjuryKroupi out three to four months after metatarsal surgeryFifth metatarsal fracture requiring surgery, ruling him out until roughly November.
Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.
Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet
- Pivot partner for Rodri: Elliot Anderson (£116m) vs Tijjani Reijnders vs Mateo Kovacic — Sofascore lays out three distinct Maresca setups using different combinations
- No.10: Rayan Cherki vs Phil Foden vs Omar Marmoush
- This XI is a low-confidence projection.
- Centre-forward: Evanilson vs Alvaro Rodriguez vs Eli Junior Kroupi vs Enes Unal vs Daniel Jebbison.
Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.
Early projection
These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.
Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)
HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.5m5.3 pts
CherkiMCI · MID · £7.5m3.3 pts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m3.2 ptsMore predictions for these teams
Manchester City vs Bournemouth — Head-to-Head
In 1 recorded meeting since 19 May 2026, Manchester City have won 0, Bournemouth have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | Bournemouth 1–1 Manchester City | England: Premier League |
The model's verdict for this fixture: Manchester City 63% · draw 20% · Bournemouth 17%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.