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Kazakhstan vs Slovakia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 15:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 15:00 UK
16Kazakhstan win23Draw61Slovakia win
The call
61%
Slovakia to win
Calls like this land 69% of the time
213 of 307 settledFull record →
14d 13hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
0–1
11% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
0.9v2.0
2.9 in total
Both teams score
52%
Leans yes
3+ goals
55%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

KazakhstanKazakhstanSlovakiaSlovakia
0.9Goals2.0
usually 1.2usually 2.2
11.3Shots15.2
usually 12.2usually 15.0
3.4On target5.7
usually 2.8usually 5.2
4.6Corners5.9
usually 5.3usually 6.3
KazakhstanKazakhstanSlovakiaSlovakia
0.4Goals0.9
5.2Shots6.9
usually 5.5usually 7.8
1.6On target2.5
usually 1.5usually 2.7
2.2Corners2.8
usually 2.8usually 3.3
KazakhstanKazakhstanSlovakiaSlovakia
0.5Goals1.1
6.2Shots8.3
1.9On target3.1
2.4Corners3.1

More chances

Slovakia to score86%
2 or more goals78%
Goal before half-time72%
3 goals or fewer67%
Kazakhstan to score60%

Kazakhstan · last 6

Dv Faroe Islands2–224 shots
Lv Moldova1–219 shots
Lat Slovakia1–23 shots
Dat Faroe Islands1–110 shots
Lat Hungary1–38 shots
Dat Armenia1–106/06

Slovakia · last 6

Wat Moldova4–014 shots
Dat Faroe Islands1–115 shots
Wv Kazakhstan2–117 shots
Wv Moldova2–017 shots
Dv Montenegro2–206/05
Wv Malta2–106/01

Head to head

Sept 2026Slovakia 2–1 Kazakhstan
Jun 2022Kazakhstan 2–1 Slovakia
Jun 2022Slovakia 0–1 Kazakhstan

First half — what we expect

Kazakhstan
33%
to score before half-time
Slovakia
58%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

KazakhstanKazakhstanSlovakiaSlovakia
41%6+ shots63%
19%8+ shots39%
43%2+ shots on target68%
<10%4+ shots on target26%
59%2+ corners71%
20%4+ corners31%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Slovakia to win is 61% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Kazakhstan lead 1–0 at half-time18%
Slovakia lead 1–0 at half-time82%
Goalless at half-time47%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Kazakhstan form →Slovakia form →

Common questions

Who will win Kazakhstan vs Slovakia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Slovakia are favoured (61% win probability vs 16% for Kazakhstan, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Kazakhstan vs Slovakia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Kazakhstan 0-1 Slovakia (10.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.

How does Bawler predict Kazakhstan vs Slovakia?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Kazakhstan 16%, the draw 23% and Slovakia 61%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Kazakhstan vs Slovakia?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Kazakhstan expecting 0.92 goals and Slovakia 1.96.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Kazakhstan vs Slovakia?

Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.