What we expect
In plain English
Italy are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Türkiye have not beaten them in their last four meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Italy or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model rates this match: Italy are favoured (45% win probability vs 31% for Türkiye, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs Türkiye?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Italy 1-1 Türkiye (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.26.
How does Bawler predict Italy vs Türkiye?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Italy 45%, the draw 24% and Türkiye 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?
BTTS: Yes (64% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.80 and away expected goals 1.46.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Italy vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.26. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).