We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Italy win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (10%)Expected goals
2.1v1.0
3.1 in totalBoth teams score
57%
Leans yes3+ goals
61%
LikelyWhat we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
2.1Goals1.0
0.9Goals0.5
1.2Goals0.6
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
What we said the chances were
Italy to score88%
2 or more goals82%
Goal before half-time75%
Türkiye to score65%
3 goals or fewer62%
First half — what we expected
61%
to score before half-time
37%
to score before half-time
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Head to head
Jun 2024Italy 0–0 Turkiye
Mar 2022Turkiye 2–3 Italy
Jun 2021Turkiye 0–3 Italy
Jun 2000Turkiye 1–2 Italy
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who won Italy vs Türkiye?
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1.
What was the final score in Italy vs Türkiye?
Italy 3–1 Türkiye, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Italy 61%, the draw 22% and Türkiye 17%.
Did both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?
Yes — both Italy and Türkiye scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.