What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 4 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. Inter D'Escaldes: last 3 matches; CSU Craiova: last 4 matches.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
CSU Craiova should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Inter D'Escaldes. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
CSU Craiova or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Inter D'Escaldes · last 3
CSU Craiova · last 4
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Inter D'Escaldes vs CSU Craiova?
Bawler's model rates this match: CSU Craiova are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Inter D'Escaldes, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Inter D'Escaldes vs CSU Craiova?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Inter D'Escaldes 1-1 CSU Craiova (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Inter D'Escaldes vs CSU Craiova?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Inter D'Escaldes 24%, the draw 24% and CSU Craiova 52%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Inter D'Escaldes vs CSU Craiova?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Inter D'Escaldes expecting 1.17 goals and CSU Craiova 1.81.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Inter D'Escaldes vs CSU Craiova?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.