What we expect · full match
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s last six matches, home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Brazil should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than India. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Brazil to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
India · last 6
Brazil · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win India vs Brazil?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brazil are favoured (94% win probability vs 1% for India, 5% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for India vs Brazil?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is India 0-3 Brazil (15.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.9.
How does Bawler predict India vs Brazil?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives India 1%, the draw 5% and Brazil 94%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in India vs Brazil?
BTTS: No (75% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.29 and away expected goals 3.58.
Over or under 2.5 goals in India vs Brazil?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.9. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).