What we expect
In plain English
Uruguay are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than India. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Uruguay to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win India vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model rates this match: Uruguay are favoured (69% win probability vs 10% for India, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for India vs Uruguay?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is India 0-1 Uruguay (15.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.48.
How does Bawler predict India vs Uruguay?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives India 10%, the draw 21% and Uruguay 69%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in India vs Uruguay?
BTTS: No (63% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.57 and away expected goals 1.92.
Over or under 2.5 goals in India vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.48. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).