Match prediction·England: Premier League·Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Hull City vs Manchester United

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
15.4% home23.5% draw61.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Hull CitystepManchester United
1.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.65
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.65

Hull average 4.2 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Manchester United average 4.3 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

Hull CityHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Charlie Hughes — Double hernia surgery at the end of the 2025/26 season, having played through the pain barrier (Hull Daily Mail, 27 Jul).
    Expected return: unconfirmed — A genuine GW1 doubt — and the most significant one at the club, since FFScout named him one of…
  • Eliot Matazo — Cruciate ligament tear. Date of injury also conflicts: Transfermarkt says 25 April 2026, the research trail says mid-January 2026.
    Expected return: reports differ — Transfermarkt says 30 November 2026; FotMob says ~mid-January 2027; hullcitynews.co.uk…
  • Hidemasa Morita — Calf injury, already roughly three weeks old on arrival
    Expected return: Jakirović, 27 July: 'another 10 days away from the pitch' → approximately 6 August.
  • Mohamed Belloumi — Hamstring tightness felt in the warm-up at half-time v Rizespor; withdrew from a planned 30 minutes v Konyaspor
    Expected return: Assistant Dean Holden, 28 July: 'Mo's trained today, he literally just felt a bit of stiffness, a bit of…
  • Lewie Coyle — Captain and first-choice right-back. Two overlapping reports: assistant Dean Holden on 28 July described a pre-existing ankle niggle ('something he's been feeling for a…
    Expected return: UNVERIFIED — severity unknown as of 30 July. Right-back is also an active recruitment area. Monitor closely.
+5 more absences reported
Man UtdAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Matthijs de Ligt — Back surgery; has not played since November 2025
    Expected return: Unlikely before autumn 2026 — expected to miss the opening weeks of the season
  • Manuel Ugarte — Knee injury sustained in the World Cup group stage v Spain
    Expected return: Reported to miss the majority of the campaign. SINGLE-SOURCE — treat with caution
  • Benjamin Sesko — Shin injury — missed the first two pre-season friendlies
    Expected return: Back training on the grass as of 26 July; expected to be available for the opener but needs conditioning work
  • Lisandro Martinez — Knock sustained in the World Cup final
    Expected return: Not considered serious; expected fit for the Premier League opener
  • Karl Darlow — Minor procedure at the end of last season
    Expected return: No date reported
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Mount misses Leeds friendly with foot knock picked up against PSG
    Mount was withdrawn after 18 minutes of the 1-1 draw with PSG on 8 Aug and subsequently missed training on the Monday and Tuesday, ruling him out of Croke Park. Carrick said: "He got kicked.
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Sesko misses Leeds friendly too, leaving Milan as only pre-season audition
    Šeško was absent from both the XI and the bench at Croke Park, extending a run of missing every pre-season friendly with the shin problem he aggravated against Liverpool in May.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Hull CityHome4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKJack Butland (or Konstantinos Tzolakis if the deal is announced)
Defence
RBLewie Coyle (c) — injury doubtCBSemi AjayiCBJohn Egan (Charlie Hughes returns here if fit)LBRyan Giles
Midfield
CMRegan SlaterCMMatt Crooks (Hidemasa Morita likely in once fit)AMKieran Dowell
Attack
RWAbu KamaraLWLiam MillarSTOli McBurnie
Selection doubts
  • BASIS: this is the Çaykur Rizespor XI of 28 July (4-2-3-1), clearly the strongest side named so far — Butland; Coyle, Ajayi, Egan, Giles; Slater, Crooks; Kamara, Dowell, Millar; McBurnie.
  • THIS XI IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
Man UtdAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKSenne Lammens (described as first-choice; ESPN still lists Altay Bayindir as No.1 — see battles)
Defence
RBNoussair Mazraoui — or Leny YoroCBLisandro MartinezCBHarry Maguire (De Ligt out)LBLuke Shaw — or Patrick Dorgu
Midfield
CMBruno Fernandes (Carrick has used him deeper than a No.10)CMAndrey Santos — or Youri Tielemans / Kobbie MainooAMMatheus Cunha
Attack
RWBryan MbeumoLWAmad Diallo — or Patrick DorguSTBenjamin Sesko (fitness-dependent) — or Joshua Zirkzee
Selection doubts
  • Striker: Sesko vs Zirkzee.
  • Double pivot: Bruno plus one of Santos, Tielemans, Mainoo — three senior signings/options for one place, with Ugarte injured

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

B.FernandesB.FernandesMUN · MID · £12.0m5.0 pts
MbeumoMbeumoMUN · MID · £8.0m4.2 pts
LammensLammensMUN · GKP · £5.0m3.2 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Hull City fixtures & form →Manchester United fixtures & form →

Hull vs Manchester United — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Hull and Manchester United — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Hull 15% · draw 24% · Manchester United 61%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Hull predictions & form →Manchester United predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.