Our combination for this match
3 legs · built by the modelTeam stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
TSG Hoffenheim are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Holstein Kiel, and Holstein Kiel have not beaten them in their last four meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
TSG Hoffenheim to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Bawler's model rates this match: TSG Hoffenheim are favoured (67% win probability vs 14% for Holstein Kiel, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Holstein Kiel 0-2 TSG Hoffenheim (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Holstein Kiel 14%, the draw 19% and TSG Hoffenheim 67%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Holstein Kiel expecting 0.97 goals and TSG Hoffenheim 2.31.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.