FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 25 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 68%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 32%, the draw at 23% and Bayer Leverkusen at 44%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
32%
Result
Draw
23%
Bayer Leverkusen win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.9
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.3 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 86% as Leverkusen's creative force generates 1.89 xG against Hoffenheim's modest 1.60, creating a fixture primed for multiple strikes."