What we expect
In plain English
Netherlands are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Greece, and they have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Netherlands to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Greece vs Netherlands?
Bawler's model rates this match: Netherlands are favoured (65% win probability vs 14% for Greece, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Greece vs Netherlands?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Greece 0-2 Netherlands (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.99.
How does Bawler predict Greece vs Netherlands?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Greece 14%, the draw 21% and Netherlands 65%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Greece vs Netherlands?
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.89 and away expected goals 2.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Greece vs Netherlands?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.99. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).