FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Greece 2–2 NetherlandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Netherlands to win at 62%. Bawler had Greece at 15%, the draw at 23% and Netherlands at 62%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Greece win
15%
Draw
23%
Result
Netherlands win
62%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 1.9
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Netherlands to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Netherlands' away win commands 62% forecast probability, powered by a 1.05 expected-goals advantage that reflects their attacking potency through Gakpo's creative output."

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