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Greece vs Serbia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK
68Greece win21Draw11Serbia win
The call
68%
Greece to win
Calls like this land 69% of the time
213 of 307 settledFull record →
14d 18hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
2–0
14% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
2.0v0.7
2.7 in total
Both teams score
43%
Leans no
3+ goals
50%
Coin flip

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

GreeceGreeceSerbiaSerbia
2.0Goals0.7
usually 1.2usually 0.7
18.3Shots9.7
usually 12.0usually 8.2
6.4On target3.2
usually 3.3usually 2.8
5.6Corners3.4
usually 3.7usually 2.7
GreeceGreeceSerbiaSerbia
0.9Goals0.3
8.4Shots4.4
usually 6.3usually 2.5
2.9On target1.4
usually 1.7usually 0.8
2.6Corners1.6
usually 2.2usually 0.8
GreeceGreeceSerbiaSerbia
1.1Goals0.4
10.0Shots5.3
3.5On target1.8
3.0Corners1.8

More chances

Greece to score87%
2 or more goals75%
3 goals or fewer72%
Goal before half-time70%

Greece · last 6

Dv Germany0–05 shots
Dv Netherlands2–28 shots
Wat Germany1–08 shots
Wat Serbia2–126 shots
Lv Italy0–112 shots
Dat Sweden2–213 shots

Serbia · last 6

Lat Netherlands1–214 shots
Lat Germany0–21 shots
Lv Netherlands1–211 shots
Lv Greece1–29 shots
Lat Mexico1–53 shots
Lv Cape Verde0–311 shots

Head to head

Sept 2026Serbia 1–2 Greece
Nov 2014Greece 0–2 Serbia
Aug 2010Serbia 0–1 Greece

First half — what we expect

Greece
59%
to score before half-time
Serbia
26%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

GreeceGreeceSerbiaSerbia
67%7+ shots20%
44%9+ shots<10%
74%2+ shots on target40%
33%4+ shots on target<10%
68%2+ corners44%
28%4+ corners11%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Greece to win is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Greece lead 1–0 at half-time87%
Serbia lead 1–0 at half-time21%
Goalless at half-time51%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Greece form →Serbia form →

Common questions

Who will win Greece vs Serbia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Greece are favoured (68% win probability vs 11% for Serbia, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Greece vs Serbia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Greece 2-0 Serbia (13.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.

How does Bawler predict Greece vs Serbia?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Greece 68%, the draw 21% and Serbia 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Greece vs Serbia?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 43% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Greece expecting 2.02 goals and Serbia 0.68.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Greece vs Serbia?

Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.