FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Greece 0–0 GermanyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Greece
0–0
Draw
Germany

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Germany to win at 67%. Bawler had Greece at 13%, the draw at 20% and Germany at 67%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Greece win
13%
Draw
20%
Result
Germany win
67%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 2.2
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Germany to win
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Germany's away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 1.28 xG advantage and 66% win probability that reflects their superior attacking threat led by Wirtz and Musiala."

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